Divorce Rates Statistics and Trends for 2022

Divorce Rates, Divorce Statistics, and Divorce Trends for 2022

For an update, see Divorce Rates Statistics and Trends for 2024.

By Miles Mason, Sr. For comment, see his media page.

In searching divorce rate statistics for trends to watch for in 2022, the first indicator has to do with people’s living arrangements.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2021 estimates from its annual America’s Families and Living Arrangements,[i] only half of all adults (50%) live with a spouse. This represents a 2% decrease over the past decade (was 52% in 2011).

What has changed since 2011? For one, 15% of adults aged 18 and older lived alone in 2021 as compared to 2011’s 14%. One percent may seem insignificant, but in 2021 14% represented 37 million adults – 28% of all U.S. households – living in one-person households compared with 33 million in 2011.[ii]

Divorce Trend #1: Number of adults living with a spouse will continue to decrease below the current rate of 50%. Number of adults living alone will continue to increase above the current rate of 15%.

SOURCE: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2021/comm/living-arrangements-of-adults.jpg

The percentage of cohabiting unmarried parents with at least one child under the age of 18 living with them has been increasing. In 2017, 35% of all unmarried parents were cohabiting as compared to 20% in 1997.

Divorce Trend #2: Cohabitation rates for unmarried parents will continue to rise above the current rate of 35%.

SOURCE FOR CHART: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/04/25/the-changing-profile-of-unmarried-parents/

Divorce Statistics into 2022

Following the CDC’s reporting of marriage and divorce statistics, the U.S. divorce rate has steadily decreased over the past two decades.[iii] In 2000, the marriage rate was 8.2 per 1,000 total population while the divorce rate (divorces and annulments) was 4.0 per 1,000 total population.

In 2010, the marriage rate was 6.8 while the divorce rate was 3.6 per total population. This is a significant decline in the number of marriages with a corresponding decline in divorces.

In 2019, the marriage rate was 6.1 while the divorce rate was 2.7 per 1,000 total population.[iv]

Divorce Trend #3: Marriage rate will continue to fall below the current rate of 6.1 per 1,000. Divorce rate will continue to fall below the current rate of 2.7 per 1,000.

SOURCE FOR CHARTS, LEFT: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/marriage-divorce.htm?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fnchs%2Fmardiv.htm

Understand, the U.S. Census Bureau will continue providing 2020 data products in addition to the 2020 Census apportionment results[v] and redistricting data summary files[vi] released in 2021. However, the bureau reported that regarding other 2020 Census data products, the “pandemic delayed our operations…” to tentatively 2022 or as determined.[vii]

Divorce Statistics 2022 by Age

Note that the rate of divorce tends to decline as the age of the married spouses increases.[viii] Generally, the older the couple, the less likely they are to divorce.

What age group has the highest divorce rate?

Married couples between the ages of 15 and 24 are more likely to divorce than any other age group. Looking at combined data for 2017, the 15-24 age group had a divorce rate of 27 per 1,000 people who were currently married.[ix]

SOURCE FOR CHART: https://www.bgsu.edu/ncfmr/resources/data/family-profiles/allred-age-variation-div-rate-fp-19-13.html

More recently, 2019 data shows adults age 25-39 had a divorce rate of 24 per 1,000 people who were currently married. The 2019 divorce rate for older adults age 40-49 was 21 per 1,000. And the 2019 divorce rate for adults age 50 and older was 10 per 1,000.

Divorce among people 50 years of age and older continues to rise. The rate of divorce for those 50 and older has more than doubled since the 1990s. Furthermore, divorce among those 50 and older is more likely for persons married multiple times before or married for fewer years.[x]

Divorce Trend #4: Divorce rate for persons 50 years and older will continue to rise above the current rate of 10 per 1,000.

SOURCE FOR CHART, LEFT: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/09/led-by-baby-boomers-divorce-rates-climb-for-americas-50-population/

In what year of marriage is divorce most likely?

There are two periods in a marriage that are at high risk of divorce, or perhaps stated better, have a higher frequency of divorce than other periods.

The first high risk period is the initial two years of the marriage, the so-called “honeymoon” period. Years 3 through 4 are considered to have an average risk of divorce.

The second high risk period is years 5 through 8. Year 7 (coined the “seven-year itch”) and year 8 have the highest vulnerability to divorce. Most first marriages ending in divorce last just under 8 years. Second marriages ending in divorce last about 7 years.[xi]

This is followed by a relatively low risk period between years 9 and 15. The period from years 15 through 20 are considered to be at average risk of divorce.

Divorce Trend #5: High risk periods of divorce will continue to be marriage years 1-2 and 5-8. Average risk periods for divorce will continue to be marriage years 3-4 and 15-20. Low risk periods for divorce will continue to be marriage years 9-15.

What percentage of marriages end in divorce?

Because the pandemic years delayed divorce filings in most jurisdictions, those divorces may cause a limited increase in the divorce rate this year. In 2022, expect the divorce rate to be at least 44.2%. This is based on a marriage rate of 6.1 people per 1,000 total population and a divorce rate of 2.7 people per 1,000 total population.[xii] So for every 6.1 people who get married, 2.7 will be divorced.

Divorce Trend #6: Divorce rate will rise above the current 44.2% rate as pandemic-delayed divorces proceed through the courts.

Divorce Rate in America 2022

Looking further back, the U.S. divorce rate peaked in 1979-1981 with 53% of all marriages ending with divorce (5.3 divorces per 1,000 people).[xiii] In 2021, the divorce rate was initially estimated to be around 45%, but that was before Covid-19 restrictions hit the U.S. married population and the courts. Delayed court proceedings and the desire of couples to stick-it-out and withhold filing until the pandemic eased its impact likely reduced the number of filings in 2020 and early 2021. By mid-2021, many legal professionals were projecting a notable increase in divorce filings.

Divorce Trend #7: With divorce court backlogs from the pandemic resolved, the divorce rate will fall below 45%.

Divorce Rate Trends in Tennessee

Tennessee ranked 8th among the top 10 states in numeric growth for the July 1, 2020, to July 1, 2021, period. Tennessee’s numeric growth was 55,099 for a total population estimate of 6,975,218 for that period.

Divorce Trend #8: Tennessee will maintain its rank among the top 10 states for numeric growth and will continue to increase its total population above the current rate of 55,000+ people for the July 1, 2021, to July 1, 2022, period.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) regarding Tennessee, in 2019, of the 1,784,999 men who were ever married, 25,675 were divorced (margin of error +/- 3,010). In 2019, of the 2,083,850 women who were ever married, 24,457 were divorced (margin of error +/- 2,582).[xiv]

Compare Tennessee Marriage Rate to Other States

For the period of 2000 to 2019, Tennessee had the second highest decrease in marriage rate by percentage with a -42.83% change (Nevada was No.1 with a -61.58% change).[xv]

In 2019, of the top 10 marriage states (marriages per 1,000 total population), Tennessee ranked 7th:[xvi]

Nevada (25.9) (*wedding destination state)
Hawaii (14.2) (*wedding destination state)
Arkansas (8.4)
Utah (8.1)
Montana (7.9)
Vermont (7.7)
Tennessee (7.5)
Idaho (7.4)
Colorado (7.3)
New York (7.3)

Divorce Trend #9: Tennessee marriage rate will continue to fall below the current rate of 7.5 per 1,000, but the state will continue to rank among the top 10 states for marriage.

Compare Tennessee Divorce Rate to Other States

In 2019, Tennessee’s rate of divorce was the 11th highest in the nation[xvii]:

Nevada (4.2)
Arkansas (4.0)
Oklahoma (3.9)
Idaho (3.9)
Wyoming (3.8)
Alaska (3.6)
West Virginia (3.6)
Alabama (3.6)
Utah (3.5) (*Utah is a common law marriage state. Utah Stat.§ 30-1-4.5)
Florida (3.5)
Tennessee (3.5)

Divorce Trend #10: Tennessee divorce rate will continue to fall below the current rate of 3.5 per 1,000, but the state will continue to rank among the top states for divorce.

In 2020, Tennessee marriages by population were at 51.1%. This placed Tennessee just below Alaska (51.2%) and just above Missouri (50.9%).[xviii]

Marriage rates have been declining for three decades in most states, including Tennessee. In 2000 the marriage rate in Tennessee was 15.5 per 1,000 total population residing in the area. In 2019, the marriage rate was 7.5 per 1,000 total population residing in area – less than half the marriages in less than two decades.[xix]

Fewer marriages translate to fewer divorces per total population residing in the area. In 2000, the Tennessee divorce rate was 5.9 per 1,000 total population in the area. In 2019, the divorce rate was 3.5 per 1,000 total population residing in area.[xx]

Divorce Trend #11: Tennessee marriage rate will continue to fall below the current rate of 7.5 per 1,000. Tennessee divorce rate will continue to fall below the current rate of 3.5 per 1,000.

Tennessee Divorce Rates by County

These are the 10 Tennessee counties with highest divorce rate per 1,000 people (2019):[xxi]

Madison (9.8)
Tipton (8.1)
Montgomery (6.4)
Lewis (5.7)
Macon (5.3)
Moore (4.9)
Fentress, Lawrence, Scott (4.8)
Hamblin (4.7)

These are the 10 Tennessee counties with the lowest divorce rates per 1,000 people (2019):

Roane (1.1)
Perry (1.7)
Chester (1.8)
Carroll, Crockett (2.0)
Shelby (2.2)
Gibson (2.3)
Davidson, Haywood (2.4)
Sequatchie (2.5)

Tennessee Divorce Trend #12: Divorce rates in Tennessee counties Fentress, Hamblin, Lawrence, Lewis, Macon, Madison, Montgomery, Moore, Scott, and Tipton will continue to rise above the current rate of 3.5 per 1,000. Divorce rates in Tennessee counties Carroll, Chester, Crockett, Davidson, Gibson, Haywood, Perry, Roane, Sequatchie, and Shelby will continue to fall below the current divorce rate of 3.5 per 1,000.

USA Divorce Rate Statistics

These are national divorce rates by number of years of marriage:

20% of marriages end in the first 5 years.
32% end in the first 10 years.
48% of spouses who married before the age of 18 are likely to divorce within 10 years.
25% of spouses over 25 years of age get divorced within 10 years.

Divorce Trend #13: Divorce rates by years of marriage will continue at current rates of 20% ending in first 5 years, 32% ending in first 10 years, 48% ending in 10 years when married before age 18, and 25% ending in 10 years when married after age 25.

Divorce Rate for First and Second Marriages

The rate of divorce increases in relation to the number of times married. Those who remarry are 2.5 times more likely to divorce.[xxii]

Divorce from first marriage: 8 years is the average length of first marriages ending in divorce. This period represents a divorce rate of about 50%.

Divorce from second marriage: The average length of second marriages is just under 8 years.[xxiii] This represents a divorce rate of about 67%. The divorce rate for third marriages is about 75%.

Divorce Trend #14: Divorce rates for persons who remarry will continue to rise above the current rate of 67% for second marriages and 75% for third marriages.

Divorce Rate in the World

Based on 2020-2021 data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Statistics Division (Demographic Yearbook – 2020), countries with the highest annual divorce rates per 1,000 people are as follows:[xxiv]

Maldives (5.52 divorces per 1,000 people)
Kazakhstan (4.6)
Russia (3.9)
Belarus and Belgium (3.7)
Moldova (3.3)
China (3.2)(*based on 2018 data)
Cuba (2.9)(**based on 2019 data)
Ukraine (2.88)
Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, and U.S.A. (2.7)

Divorce Trend #15: The U.S.A. divorce rate will continue to fall below the current rate of 2.7 per 1,000, but the U.S.A. will continue to rank among those nations with the highest divorce rates.

Based on 2017-2020 data, countries with the lowest annual divorce rates are as follows:[xxv]

Sri Lanka (.15)
Guatemala and Vietnam (.20)
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (.40)
Peru (.50)
South Africa (.60)
Chile, Columbia, Ireland, Malta, Panama, Qatar, Saint Lucia, UAE, and Venezuela (.70)

Divorce Trend #16: Countries with divorce rates at or below the current rate of 0.70 per 1,000 will continue to be the lowest in the world.

As useful as divorce statistics are in predicting future trends, they do not reflect the personal challenges and serious issues faced by each individual spouse. When considering divorce, seek legal advice from an experienced divorce attorney.

NOTES AND SOURCES:

[i] Living Arrangements Over the Decades, U.S. Census Bureau 2021, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2001, 2011, 2021 (released Nov. 29, 2021).

[ii] 2021 Current Population Survey’s Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC).

[iii] 2020 Census data not yet available.

[iv] CDC/NCHS Nat’l Vital Statistics System.

[v] https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/dec/2020-apportionment-data.html

[vi] https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/rdo/summary-files.html

[vii] https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2021/09/upcoming-2020-census-data-products.html

[viii] Bowling Green State University, Nat’l Ctr. for Family & Marriage Research.

[ix] https://www.bgsu.edu/ncfmr/resources/data/family-profiles/allred-age-variation-div-rate-fp-19-13.html

[x] Led by Baby Boomers, divorce rates climb for America’s 50+ population, by R. Stepler, Pew Research Center.

[xi] Which Year of Marriage is The Most Likely to End in Divorce? By J. Pease, The Kronzek Firm PLC.